Economic woes among seniors could spell trouble for politicians come November

August 9, 2002

WASHINGTON (AP) - Stock market losses are forcing retiree Michael Dalal back to work just to pay the bills.

A former lawyer, businessman and mortgage banker at a brokerage company he owned before retiring two years ago, Dalal, 67, of Monroe, N.J., has lost more than half of his savings. Besides the slumping economy and corporate executives, he blames Congress, which he says hasn't done enough.

"Both the parties are to blame," said Dalal, who has started looking for a mortgage banking job that will allow him to work about five hours a day. "I wish they'd all resign and let some new people come in."

Older Americans, already energized about such issues as prescription drugs and Social Security, are increasingly feeling frustration, anger and fear about the economy. That could spell problems for politicians on the eve of midterm elections because seniors vote in disproportionately large numbers.

Democrats must gain seven seats in November to be assured of a majority in the House. Republicans need to gain one seat to return the Senate to a 50-50 tie that gives them control on the strength of Vice President Dick Cheney's tie-breaking vote.

Voters 65 and older accounted for 19 percent of all votes cast in 1998. They accounted for 14 percent of all votes cast in congressional races in 2000.

Those statistics contributed to a flurry of activity in Congress, including the corporate accountability bill President Bush signed into law last week.

Republican pollsters recently warned the GOP that corporate scandals and economic angst have soured the national mood noticeably, which could translate into "GOP turnout problems" if the trend continues.

"The issue agenda seems tilted slightly toward the Democrats as our party struggles to right the economy and get a handle on the corporate corruption issue. Voters' attitudes toward corporate offenders are hostile," Public Opinion Strategies advised.

But National Republican Campaign Committee spokesman Steve Schmidt said he thinks corporate corruption will backfire on Democrats trying to make it a campaign issue.

"Their strategy of talking down the economy, of fueling cynicism among investors about the stock market... is a strategy doomed to failure," he said. "The president and a Republican Congress passed legislation that has toughened laws. Democrats have dragged their feet and continue to drag their feet on pension reform."

AARP, formerly the American Association of Retired Persons, has kept a close eye on corporate reform and pension legislation. The group's members, who are age 50 and older, have a huge interest because they are the ones feeling the impact of the sinking stock market.

"Economic uncertainty always plays a big role in elections," said David Certner, AARP's federal affairs director.

Sen. Paul Sarbanes, D-Md., a co-author of the new corporate fraud law, has credited AARP with helping early on - even before the WorldCom collapse - to drive the bill through the committee process.

"That was the role we were helping play, to ensure that there was a continued public sentiment to make substantial reform," Certner said. "Add to that the jet fuel of WorldCom, which pushed it over the top."

Democrat Dan Wofford, who is running for a Pennsylvania seat in the House, saw and felt a change in voters' attitudes a couple of weeks ago.

"People are talking about a sense of frustration that the rules of the game haven't been fair," said Wofford, who faces an uphill battle against Republican state Sen. James W. Gerlach in a newly drawn district favors the GOP.

He recalls an upper middle-class woman who visited his campaign office recently. She retired after 20 years at American Express, but returned to work at a jewelry store after losing nearly all of her retirement savings in the stock market.

"People who have worked hard and played by the rules feel at the end of the day the game is rigged. I think they're angry about it. There's also fear," Wofford said.

Democrats are taking advantage of that sentiment. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee cites at least 24 races in which their candidates have made corporate accountability an issue in recent weeks.

"I think we've tapped into a fear that voters have about what direction this country is going in," DCCC spokeswoman Jenny Backus said.

That's been particularly true for senior citizens in some districts, including fast-growing, more affluent areas such as Nevada, Texas, North Carolina, Arizona and New Mexico, she said.

Democrats took their message Friday to a senior citizens center in a poor section of Las Vegas, where Rep. Robert Menendez of New Jersey accused Republicans of jeopardizing health care, prescription drugs and Social Security with burgeoning federal deficits.

"For what purpose?" Menendez said. "A tax cut that benefits the top 1 percent of wage earners."

But some analysts say senior citizens aren't the only ones who will go to the polls in November. Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, said turnout swelled among the entire electorate in 1992 and in 1982 because of a bad economy.

"If we are in a perceived recession by the end of September when things start to gel, you can expect a higher turnout and you can expect serious troubles for the Republicans," Gans said.